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Private Markets Outlook
Opportunity amid uncertainty
In this year’s Private Markets Outlook, we explore the key themes driving the continued opportunities the private markets may offer as investors navigate ongoing uncertainty and volatility in public markets. Northleaf expects the mid-market to lead the way, with companies that are regionally focused, less exposed to global trade tensions, and are rich with value-creation levers. Across private equity, private credit, and infrastructure, these dynamics point to continued resilience and differentiated long-term returns.
Private Equity: Demand for secondaries surges
Total secondaries transaction volume (in billions, USD)
- Liquidity solutions rising – secondary transaction volumes forecast to exceed US$200B in 20251 as investors increasingly seek liquidity and portfolio rebalancing.
- Continuation funds expand – fund managers expected to increasingly use continuation vehicles to extend ownership of high-performing assets.
- Mid-market resilience – high-quality mid-market companies anticipated to drive sustained private equity opportunities, even under public market volatility.
Private Credit: Demonstrated resiliency
Private credit continues to be a preferred source of financing
Count of US finanancing transactions, private credit syndicated
- Attractive returns – private credit is expected to continue demonstrating a strong risk-return profile as compared to public markets.
- Preferred financing – private businesses are anticipated to keep favoring private credit over syndicated loans due to its speed, flexibility, and certainty of execution when traditional lenders remain cautious.
- Mid-market strength – regionally focused borrowers with recurring revenues, covenant protections, and less exposure to global trade shocks are projected to drive resilience and lower default rates relative to public markets.
Private Infrastructure: Bridging the funding gap
Infrastructure investment at current trends and need
- Generational capital need – $100 trillion required globally by 2040,2 ensuring persistent demand for private capital in essential infrastructure.
- Secular growth drivers – AI adoption, energy transition and decarbonization expected to fuel sustained investment in digital, clean energy and transport assets.
- Mid-market focus – mid-sized infrastructure deals (>85% of 2024 activity) projected to remain the most attractive entry point for private investors.
To read the full private markets outlook, along with insights into how these investments may fit into an investor portfolio, please click the download button below.
Explore our private markets offerings and resource centre
1 Source: Evercore Private Capital Advisory – FY 2024 Secondary Market Review, January 2025.
2 Source: Global issues: Population, United Nations, accessed on March 19, 2025
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